668 WTPZ44 KNHC 030323 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 22...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 This evening's conventional satellite presentation consists of an impressive deep convective curved band with -83C cloud tops encompassing the west side of the cyclone. Earlier SSM/S and AMSR2 microwave passes revealed inner core ring development that was about 60 percent closed in the northern quadrants. There appears to be a slight vertical tilt toward the west, more than likely due to the period it spent moving across Nicaragua. The initial intensity is raised to 50 kt and is based on a compromise of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The shear is low, the water is warm, and the atmosphere is moist, all contributing to further strengthening during the next few days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in 24 hours. Around mid-period, the global models and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance show modest northeasterly shear impinging on Bonnie's outflow pattern. As a result, the official intensity forecast calls for a slight weakening beyond day 3. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be due west or 270/15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward Sunday and continue in this heading through the remainder of the forecast period. The global and regional model track guidance remains in agreement, and these tightly clustered aids, as well as the NHC forecast, takes Bonnie approximately parallel to the coasts and keeps the tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the southern coast of Central America and Mexico. However, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor Bonnie's forecast track for the next few days as a slight northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the southern portion of El Salvador through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.6N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 12.4N 94.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 13.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 15.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.3N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts