000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080234
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192021
700 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021
 
Sandra was briefly devoid of convective activity earlier today, but
its organization has somewhat improved during the past several
hours. Bursts of deep convection have been noted in the northeastern
quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The well-defined low-level center
became exposed earlier today due to 20 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear over Sandra, but the center has recently moved
closer to the edge of a small convective cloud mass. The objective
and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Hopefully, a
scatterometer pass samples the storm later tonight to help assess
its intensity and structure.
 
A ridge to the north and east of Sandra is steering the cyclone
west-northwestward, and its estimated motion is 285/10 kt. Sandra is
expected to gradually turn westward over the next couple of days, as
the vertically shallow circulation becomes increasingly steered by
the low-level flow. Little change is noted in the latest track
guidance, and the official NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, with just slight southward adjustments based on the
consensus aids. Moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear is forecast
to persist over Sandra for the next 12-24 h, then strengthen
thereafter. Given that Sandra has already struggled to maintain
organized convection, the system is likely to be short-lived. The
cyclone is expected to weaken on Monday as the increasing shear
strips away its remaining convection. Sandra should degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low early Tuesday and then open up into a
trough and dissipate by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 14.2N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.2N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 15.4N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart