000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021 The broad area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the last several days well south of the Baja California Peninsula has improved in organization this morning. Overnight scatterometer data suggested that a better defined center was trying to develop close to the deep convection. Microwave data from an 0857 UTC AMSR2 pass also indicated low-level cloud curvature on the 37-GHz channel, suggesting a well-defined center had formed. Indeed, first light 1-min visible imagery from a GOES-17 mesoscale domain now shows a tight low-level swirl located just to the west of a new burst of deep convection. All these data suggest the system's circulation is now well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are both at CI 2.5/35 kt, suggesting the depression may already be close to tropical storm intensity. The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 290/7 kt, though uncertainty exists since the center only recently became well-defined. The system currently lies along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This synoptic pattern should allow the depression to maintain a west-northwest motion over the next 12-24 hours while it remains vertically coupled to the deep-convection. Afterwards, the remaining deep convection is expected to dissipate and the leftover shallow vortex is expected to be increasingly steered around a low-level ridge offshore of the west coast of Mexico. This pattern should cause the cyclone to turn westward and then west-southwestward over the remainder of its lifespan. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this general solution, and the NHC official track lies close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. As mentioned above, the subjective satellite estimates already suggest that this system could be near tropical storm intensity and the peak wind from the overnight scatterometer data was 31 kt. While the system is currently battling about 20-25 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, this magnitude is not expected to change much during the next 12-24 hours. Thus, there is an opportunity for some slight intensification, which is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast which takes the system up to a 35-kt tropical storm by tonight. However, increasing shear and a drying mid-level environment should result in weakening beginning by 36 hours with the storm forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the consensus aids, but a bit below the latest HWRF/HMON runs which suggests a slightly higher 40-45 kt peak intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin