000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060231
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
 
Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin.  The compact
tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several
hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the
western half of the circulation.  The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt.
The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little
stronger.  Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system
earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available
tonight.
 
The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt.  A gradual
turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the
next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered
primarily by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward
the latest guidance.
 
Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days.
These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in
shear should cause steady weakening.  Jimena is expected to become a
remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi