000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050240
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021
 
The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier 
today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and 
some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east 
and northeast of the center.  Microwave imagery also suggests 
little change in structure.  The current intensity is held at 
30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer 
observations. 

Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for 
motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to 
the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained 
for the next 48-72 hours.  This should keep the system on a 
generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period.  
By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left 
following the low-level environmental winds.  The official track 
forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of 
the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution 
which is even farther to the right of these tracks.

Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment 
for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems 
likely.  Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause 
weakening.  The official intensity forecast is near or above most 
of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch