000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200239
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical 
Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very 
difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still 
exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time 
already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is 
being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory.

Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a 
mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue 
through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. 
This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally 
dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning.

Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture 
associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy 
rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for 
the remainder of the weekend.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over 
coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto 
Vallarta through early tonight. 
 
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto