000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240833
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is
located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state
of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations
to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation
shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking
high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast
position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects
where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the
cyclone will likely have dissipated by then.

Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will
still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms
occurring to the east and south of the center.

Key Messages:

1.  Storm surge will subside this morning  along the coasts of
southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart