000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240231
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed
the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles
(80 km) southeast of Mazatlan.  Willa made landfall as a Category 3
hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt.  The hurricane
is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring
of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually
fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the
initial intensity is set at 100 kt.  Willa is forecast to move
farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting
in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone
will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate.

Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the
northeast a little faster, about 15 kt.  The hurricane is well
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern
should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in
forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts
of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should
continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several
hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of
west-central Mexico.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila