000
WTPZ44 KNHC 231503
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during
the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and
and an outer eyewall.  Recent microwave data and reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that
concentric eyewalls are present.  The reconnaissance aircraft just
completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane
reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than
previously estimated.  Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a
blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the
initial intensity is set at 110 kt.  The plane should provide a
more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its
mission during the new few hours.

Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt.  A
shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by
tonight.  The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement,
and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory.

Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing
southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the
hurricane approaches the coast.  Despite the forecast decrease in
the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane
through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central
and southwestern Mexico.  After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken
over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected
on Wednesday.  Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast
to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is
expected.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along
the coast of west- central Mexico.  Hurricane-force winds will also
extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico
as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  25/0000Z 26.7N  99.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown