561 
WTPZ44 KNHC 171455
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and
the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification.  A
warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-17 IR BD-curve
enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C
wraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation.  The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective
analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this
advisory.

Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during
the next 24 hours.  Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs,
and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this
scenario.  The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the
statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36
hours.  Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little
less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the
statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly
vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend.  The official
forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is
close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of
the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining
portion of the forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt.
Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either
a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire
forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the
previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very
close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts