648 
WTPZ44 KNHC 162036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye,
with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise
around the northern side of the circulation.  While Dvorak estimates
from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from
microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently
started to potentially form an eye.  The initial wind speed is set
to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure.  Further
intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear
and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility.  The new NHC forecast is basically an update
from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could
be conservative.

The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11.   The synoptic
pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the
north.  While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west
or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast
period.  The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since
the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically
come in right on top of the last NHC forecast.  Thus the new NHC
track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of
the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake