231 
WTPZ44 KNHC 160233
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Overall, Lane's cloud pattern has become a little better organized
this evening.  Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with
some drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow
above 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion
of the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other
hand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system.
The surface center is also located a bit further in the northern
edge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast.  The initial
intensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0),
and a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt).

Little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and
it still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on
the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification
Index (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring
during this particular period.  The NHC forecast is weighed heavily
on a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a
category 3 hurricane in 3 days.

Lane's motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little
to the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level
ridge to its north-northwest.  The large-scale models continue to
show the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward
and westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located
southwest of the Baja California coast.  At that time, the cyclone
should gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this
general direction through the remaining period of the forecast.
The official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only
minor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts