592 
WTPZ44 KNHC 152034
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening.  The central
dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in
the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants.
ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that
will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane
remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be
favorable for intensification.  Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C,
and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening
at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is
not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just
below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still
a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period
from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will
remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast
is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected
consensus models.

The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11
kt.  The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical
ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period,
causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific.
While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the
latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous
advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend.  The
latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction,
close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake