000
WTPZ44 KNHC 182035
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

The center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult
to locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite
imagery.  In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no
longer a center.  Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the
estimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help.  Given these
uncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this
system, but the next one could be the last.  The current intensity
is held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from
SAB.  It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by
early tomorrow due to interaction with land.

The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt.  There is little
in the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are
unable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone.  Carlotta or
its remnant should continue to move northwestward to
north-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until
dissipation.

Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican
meteorological service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch