000
WTPZ44 KNHC 181440
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Locating Carlotta's center this morning in conventional satellite
imagery has been difficult.  An earlier 0806 UTC GMI polar orbital
microwave pass, however, was helpful in confirming that the system
has in fact persisted as a small, relatively symmetric tropical
cyclone.  A blend of subjective and objective T-numbers supports 25
kt for this advisory.

With the assistance of the aforementioned microwave image, the
initial motion is estimated to be 310/4 kt, within the weak low-
to mid-level flow generated by high pressure to the north.
Landfall still appears to be unlikely due to the expected motion
parallel to the coastline, but only a slight northward deviation
could bring the center of the small cyclone onshore.  In any
event, dissipation should occur just offshore by Tuesday morning, if
not sooner.

Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican
meteorological service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.9N 103.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts