000
WTPZ44 KNHC 180836
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Successive bursts of deep convection have been occurring since last
evening, each one to the northwest of the previous one, which
likely indicates that Carlotta still has a tight circulation and
well-defined center.  As such, the cyclone has not yet dissipated
nor degenerated into a remnant low.  Satellite classifications
support maintaining a 25-kt initial intensity.

Based on the propagation of convection, Carlotta's center appears
to be nearing the coast of Mexico, and the initial motion is
northwestward, or 305/4 kt.  The depression is entering an area of
low-level southerly to westerly winds, which should force its small
circulation closer to land.  Due to steep coastal mountains,
however, the low-level center is unlikely to move inland and should
dissipate near the coast.  A 12-hour forecast point based on
persistence is provided, but Carlotta could dissipate at any time.

Each time a pulse of deep convection occurs, it is displaced south
of the center due to 10-15 kt of north-northeasterly shear.  The
shear is not expected to decrease in the short term, which could
allow Carlotta to continue as a tropical depression until the
circulation is disrupted by the terrain of Mexico and dissipates.

Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican
meteorological service for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 17.7N 102.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg