000
WTPZ44 KNHC 180237
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a
small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection
bursting over and south of the well-defined center.  Satellite
intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Based on these data, the intensity is being
maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The
recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the
vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being
slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds.
However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep
the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just
offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so.

Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since
the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt
along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are
expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration
into a remnant low on Monday.

The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the
southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.
These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products
issued by your national meteorological service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart