000
WTPZ44 KNHC 170217
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Carlotta has surprised us this evening.  Radar images from Acapulco,
Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure
has improved significantly.  The radar data indicate that Carlotta
has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been
contracting during the past few hours.  In addition, the radar
echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric
around the eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in
fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore.  Since the
storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move
inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that
Carlotta will strengthen much more.  Once inland, fast weakening is
expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of
Mexico Sunday night or early Monday.

The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely
due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north.  The
new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and
is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models.

Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy
rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.
The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details,
please see products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.6N  99.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi