000
WTPZ44 KNHC 162037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Satellite imagery and radar images from Acapulco Mexico suggest that
there continues to be little change in the organization of
the storm.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are also
unchanged, so the advisory intensity wind speed remains at 45 kt.
Carlotta continues to be affected by some northerly shear associated
with an upper-level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and no
important changes in intensity are anticipated prior to landfall.
Carlotta has a small circulation that, after the center crosses the
coast, is likely to weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of
southeastern Mexico and dissipate in a day or so.

Animation of the radar images and high-resolution GOES16 visible
imagery suggest that the center is inching northward, and the
initial motion estimate is 360/1 kt.  Carlotta remains in an
environment of weak steering currents between mid-level high
pressure systems.  The track forecast reasoning is that the tropical
cyclone will move very slowly northward to north-northwestward,
between the two highs.  All of the global models show Carlotta
moving inland soon.  The current official forecast is a little left
of the previous one and right of the dynamical model consensus,
although some of the input models of this consensus lose the
analyzed vortex after 12-24 hours.

Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected
hazards from Carlotta continue to be heavy rainfall and the
associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The rainfall threat
will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern
Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products
issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 16.1N  99.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 17.9N 100.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch