000
WTPZ44 KNHC 161434
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
 
Satellite images and radar images from Acapulco Mexico indicate
that the overall organization of the storm has changed little over
the past several hours.  The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt in
agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Water vapor animation indicates that some northerly shear,
associated with the flow to the southwest of an upper low over the
Gulf of Mexico, is affecting Carlotta.  Not much change in strength
is anticipated prior to landfall, but we will closely monitor the
structure of the tropical cyclone in case some intensification
occurs.
 
A center position estimate from a recent 37 GHZ SSMIS image
suggests that Carlotta may have shifted slightly to the east.
This is also consistent with the winds from a ship observation
about 70 n mi south of the estimated center.  Overall, however,
there has been little motion of the system since last night.
Carlotta remains in a region of very weak steering currents with a
trough located to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.  Most of
the global models indicate that the system will move inland or
along the coastline within the next day or two.  The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Carlotta crossing
the coastline by Sunday.
 
Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected
hazards from Carlotta continue to be the heavy rainfall and
the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mud slides
over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The rainfall threat
is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra
Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products issued
by your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 15.9N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.5N  99.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 17.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 17.6N  99.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch