000
WTPZ44 KNHC 151440
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Radar data from Acapulco, plus satellite and microwave imagery,
indicate that the depression has either reformed and/or is moving
slowly toward the north-northeast.  Overall, the satellite
presentation has improved over the past several hours, with a large
band of convection in the southeastern quadrant.  The initial wind
speed remains 30 kt for this advisory, and perhaps scatterometer
data will give us a better look at the wind field this afternoon.

Since the center has shifted to the north-northeast, the timing of
landfall along the coast of Mexico has accelerated, with the bulk of
the guidance now suggesting a Saturday landfall rather than Sunday.
The official forecast now goes with the faster scenario, close to a
cluster of the GFS ensemble mean and HMON models and the eastern
Pacific track consensus aid TVCE.  While the environmental
conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening, the
depression has less time to intensify because of the faster landfall
timing.  Consequently, the intensity forecast is reduced from the
previous one, but is a little higher than the model consensus.

Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat,
there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to
moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre
mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office
for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 15.8N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.1N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 16.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 16.8N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 17.2N  98.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake