000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050248
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Mexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible
imagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has
dissipated.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new
center under convection well to the west, and this has probably
become the primary center, if one still exists.  As a result, the
initial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the
west.  Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally
westward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  Since
most of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level
center, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous
advisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity.  Therefore, the
forecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less.

Dvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to
be a 30 kt tropical depression.  All of the dynamical models
forecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most
recent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should
exist now.  There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based
hurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact
with a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or
contribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone.  However,
this is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt
or more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment.

Even if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy
rainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern
Mexico through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky