000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican
radar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although
the estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a
ship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely.
Strong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist
over Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models
show the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours.  Based on
that guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now
calls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could
occur sooner than that.

The center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate
but the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the
west-northwest or 285/8 kt.  A large mid-level ridge to the north of
Ramon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of
westward track until it dissipates.  The official track forecast is
somewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance.

The primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which
should occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.2N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch