000
WTPZ44 KNHC 041435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not
very well organized with little evidence of banding features.
However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some
rainbands over the western portion of the circulation.  The current
intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the
latest Dvorak estimates.  Ramon is experiencing strong easterly
shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the
Texas/Mexico border.  The dynamical model guidance indicate only a
slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only
slight strengthening seems possible.  The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.

The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial
motion is 285/6 kt.  A large mid-level ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly
westward track over the next several days.  The official forecast is
a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the
models so this forecast is of low confidence.

Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the
northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of
a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this
time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 14.9N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 15.1N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch