000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022042
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017

Lidia's deep convection is becoming less organized and located
increasingly farther away from the center of the tropical storm.
This is likely due to the system being disrupted while traveling up
the spine of the mountainous Baja California peninsula as well as
the cold waters on the west side of the peninsula.  Despite this,
the system still has a robust surface circulation and the ASCAT
scatterometer passes this afternoon showed 35 kt peak winds within
the Gulf of California, which is the value used for the initial
intensity.

The tropical storm should continue weakening as it traverses cold
SSTs and a less unstable, dry atmosphere.  It is likely that deep
convection associated with Lidia will cease in 12-24 hr marking the
end of the system as a tropical cyclone.  The official intensity
forecast is the based upon the tightly clustered statistical and
dynamical model guidance and is the same as the previous advisory.

Lidia is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt while moving around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The
tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest at about the
same rate of speed as it weakens and moves along in the low-level
tradewind flow.  The official track forecast is based upon the
usually reliable global models and is slightly north of the previous
advisory.

Despite the forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will
continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
through Sunday.  Moisture from the cyclone should spread over
portions of the southwestern United States through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 28.8N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 29.6N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 30.9N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 31.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 32.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea