000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020853
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017

Lidia's convection has a rather amorphous pattern in infrared
satellite imagery this morning, but earlier microwave images
indicate that the storm still has some banding features.  The
center has moved inland again and is now located over northern
Baja California Sur.  Since the center is over land and cloud tops
are gradually warming, the advisory intensity is set at 40 kt, which
is slightly below the average of the latest Dvorak CI numbers.  The
strongest winds are likely occurring well to the north and east of
the center over the Gulf of California.  Continued weakening is
expected since Lidia will be moving over the rugged terrain of the
Baja California peninsula and then over the cold waters off the
peninsula's west coast.  Lidia should lose its deep convection over
the cold waters by 36 hours, at which point it would become a
remnant low.  The global models generally keep Lidia as a separate
and distinct vorticity maximum through at least 48 hours, but they
then show it merging or becoming absorbed by a larger area of
vorticity by day 3.  The NHC forecast continues to show a day 3
point for continuity, but whatever surface low exists at that time
is likely to be a new and separate feature.

Lidia continues to move northwestward (320/10 kt) along the southern
edge of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern
United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36
hours.  A bend toward the west-northwest is expected after that time
due to Lidia's interaction with a mid-/upper-level low currently
located well to the west of the Baja California peninsula.  Lidia
should re-emerge off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
later today and then gradually move away from land over the next few
days.

Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over
northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through
Sunday.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern
United States over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 27.2N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 28.3N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  03/0600Z 29.6N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 30.8N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 31.9N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 33.1N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg