000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017

The terrain of the Baja California peninsula has taken a toll on
Lidia.  The cloud pattern has become disorganized, and deep
convection has decreased with only a few strong patches remaining
near the center. Based on tonight's satellite intensity estimates
and continuity, the initial intensity is generously set at 45 kt.
It appears that the strongest winds are occurring in the eastern
half of the circulation and mainly over the Sea of Cortes. The
interaction with land and cold waters will result in additional
weakening, and Lidia is forecast to be a remnant low in about 24 to
36 hours or even sooner.

Lidia has continued on a steady motion toward northwest or 320
degrees at 10 kt. The flow pattern resulting from a high over
Mexico and a large low to the west will continue to steer
Lidia northwestward for a day or two. Thereafter, Lidia is expected
to be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level easterly flow. The
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the
multi-model consensus.

Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over
northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during
the next couple of days. Moisture from the cyclone could
reach the southwestern United States over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 26.4N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 27.6N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0000Z 29.0N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  03/1200Z 30.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 31.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 33.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila