000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010846
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017

Cloud top temperatures have been warming during the past few hours,
and the convective pattern appears to be losing some organization
as Lidia interacts with the high terrain of Baja California Sur.
Still, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T3.5,
and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.  Recent ASCAT passes
missed Lidia's core, but they did indicate a large swath of
tropical-storm-force winds extending over the southern Gulf of
California.

Fixes suggest that Lidia has been moving more slowly during the
past 6-12 hours, and the motion estimate is now toward the northwest
(325 deg) at 7 kt.  The storm is embedded between a mid-level high
centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough
southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on
a northwestward course for the next three days.  Lidia's center is
likely to move onshore south of Cabo San Lazaro later this morning
and then cross on/off the western coast of the Baja California
peninsula through 36 hours.  While most of the track models are
fairly well clustered, the GFS remains the fastest model, and the
ECMWF is still one of the slowest.  The new NHC forecast is a
little faster than the previous one and lies between the GFS and
ECMWF solutions, closest to TVCN and HCCA.

Lidia is expected to weaken over the next couple of days,
especially as the circulation continues to move over the Baja
California peninsula.  However, tropical-storm-force winds will
continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula
and adjacent Gulf of California for the next 36 hours.  Once Lidia
permanently moves off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula, it will be located over the cold waters of the California
Current and will likely be unable to generate deep convection.  For
that reason, it should be a remnant low by 48 hours.  After that
time, Lidia will begin to interact with a deep-layer low located off
the coast of California, and it is now expected to dissipate or be
absorbed by that low by day 4.

Since Lidia's center is expected to move onshore soon, and the
storm is not likely to strengthen in the short time beforehand, the
government of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for
southern Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 23.8N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
 36H  02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg