000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300850 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 The large disturbance off the coast of Mexico continues to gradually become better organized, with some banding features over the southern portion of the broad circulation. There is still no indication of a well-defined center, however. The current intensity estimate remains 25 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The system/tropical cyclone should be in an environment of weak to moderate easterly to southeasterly shear over the next few days so once the circulation consolidates, strengthening is likely until the system interacts with the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Given the seemingly favorable environment, the official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model consensus. The cyclone could become a hurricane when it nears Baja California Sur, although this is not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should weaken while it traverses the cooler water north of Cabo San Lazaro on the Baja peninsula. As before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is quite uncertain, with the current estimate at 325/9 kt. For the next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level cyclonic gyre. In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the northwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast lies in between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and is close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. It should be noted that since there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this official track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty. It is also important to note that very heavy rain is possible outside of the watch/warning area in southwestern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides. In addition, wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states through early Wednesday due to the system's large circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 18.5N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/1800Z 19.6N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 31/0600Z 20.6N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 31/1800Z 21.6N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch