000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302040
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Convection continues to gradually decline with cloud tops of -20C to
-25C now located near the low-level center and in the northern
semicircle. Although the convective pattern has taken on more of a
stratiform appearance, an 1840Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated that
Hilary is still a tropical storm based on several 35- to 37-kt wind
vectors located in the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.  Continued steady
weakening is expected as Hilary moves over SSTs near 21C and ingests
stable stratocumulus clouds throughout the forecast period, with the
cyclone likely degenerating into a remnant low pressure system
tonight or early Monday.

The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC
model guidance is in excellent agreement on Hilary moving
west-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by the
shallow cyclone turning a little more westward under the influence
of brisk easterly tradewinds until dissipation occurs by 72 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 25.0N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart