000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300850
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Deep convection associated with Hilary has continued to decrease in
coverage overnight, with only a small area of cold cloud tops
remaining to the southeast of the center. An average of the Dvorak
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMMS yields an initial
intensity estimate of 40 kt.  Hilary will be moving into a more
stable airmass over SSTs below 22C very soon, which should result
in steady weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Deep convection
is also expected to dissipate later today, and Hilary is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low within 24 hours.

Recent satellite fixes show that Hilary has turned west-
northwestward or 300/12 kt.  A west-northwestward motion between
a low- to mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Irwin to
the south should continue over the next couple of days.  The latest
global models suggest that cyclone is likely to dissipate before
any merger with Irwin or its remnants takes place.  The NHC track
forecast is along the southern portion of the tightly clustered
guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 23.5N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 25.4N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 26.3N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown