000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Hilary continues to become better organized on the latest satellite images, with a small central core and a hint of an eye dimple trying to form in the visible channel. A blend of satellite estimates supported around 45 kt at 18Z, but since the satellite presentation has continued to improve, the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt. The storm is forecast to be within a low shear, warm water, and high moisture environment for at least the next couple of days. The SHIPS guidance responds to these conditions by showing a 55-percent chance of a 55-kt increase in winds during the next 48 hours. The favorable conditions above, including the small inner core, strongly points to Hilary rapidly intensifying during that time. Thus, the latest NHC forecast is increased from the previous one, showing rapid intensification, and ends up above the model consensus, but not as high as the HFIP corrected consensus or HWRF models. Late in the period, an increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by outflow from TS Irwin, along with more marginal SSTs should cause some weakening late in the period. Hilary is moving slower now toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt. A ridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction for the next several days, with some increase in speed by 48 hours as the ridge strengthens slightly. Late in the period, there is a possibility of some binary interaction with Irwin, which adds some uncertainty to the track forecast. While some of the model guidance has jumped around during the past 6 hours, the consensus aids are very close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant change has been made to the latest NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.2N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake