000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this
evening and is now separated from the low-level center.
A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be
generous.  The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused
continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low
in 12 to 24 hours.

Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the
long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt.  A
west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to
three days.  The updated NHC track forecast is close to the
previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus
and the more southern ECMWF solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown