000
WTPZ44 KNHC 271433
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade.  Although an
eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has
been diminishing.  The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a
blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone is
currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora
will continue to cool for the next couple of days.  The system
should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a
remnant low in 48 hours, or less.  The official intensity forecast
is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.

Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11
kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should
maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in
forward speed, over the next day or two.  In 48-72 hours, a more
westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated.  The
official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but
south of the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch