000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270246
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a
well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have
gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.  The
hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26
degree Celsius isotherm very soon.  Since the shear is expected to
remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in
a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day
or so.  After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder
than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay.
Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans
toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt.  A large deep-layer
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a
west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally
westward in the low-level flow.  The new NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to
the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown