000
WTPZ44 KNHC 262041
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Since the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably
eroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier
embedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye
structure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77
kt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates
have been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been increased slightly to 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global
and regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Dora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a
west-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a
turn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120
hours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around
the previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther
to the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the
forecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.

Dora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the
negative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its
north. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next
6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity
to warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with
very favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the
weakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not
sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity
consensus model IVCN.

Although the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from
mainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief
locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico
into this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart