000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on
microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional
satellite imagery.  The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric
than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite
estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the
improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 70 kt.  Dora has about 12-24 hours to further
strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more
dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to
decay.  Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the
weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing
the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.
Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally
inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the
previous NHC forecast.  Given the spread in the guidance, this is a
low confidence forecast.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora
should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and
becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward
since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast
follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast
for that time.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake