000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260246
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Dora's cloud pattern has continued to quickly improve this evening.
Several well-defined spiral bands wrap around the center and the
CDO has become more symmetric and expanded since the previous
advisory. Recent microwave imagery suggest that an eye feature has
formed within the CDO. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS supported an intensity
of 55 kt at 0000 UTC, but with the continued improved structure,
the initial intensity has been set to 60 kt for this advisory.
Dora is forecast to move over warm water and remain within a low
shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours.  These conditions
should allow for additional intensification and Dora is likely to
become a hurricane by early Monday.  The tropical cyclone is
forecast to reach cooler waters in about a day, which should begin
the weakening process.  A faster rate of spin down is expected by
late Tuesday as Dora moves over even colder waters and into a more
stable environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little
above the ICON consensus through 36 hours, and is in best agreement
with the LGEM guidance later in the period.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days.  After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn westward.  The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies a little south of the TVCN model consensus out of respect for
the typically reliable ECMWF which is along the southern edge of the
guidance envelope.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 16.4N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown