000
WTPZ44 KNHC 251433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Dora's cloud pattern continues to become better organized, with
more distinct convective banding features developing.  The current
intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
classification of T3.0 from TAFB.  The dynamical environment should
remain very favorable for additional intensification, with
upper-level anticyclonic flow over the storm and low vertical shear
for the next several days.  Sea surface temperatures, however,
should begin to decrease significantly in 48 hours or so, which
will halt the strengthening trend.  The official intensity forecast
is close to the latest model consensus.  It should be noted that
Dora could strengthen more than indicated here in the short term,
given that the SHIPS RII shows an above normal probability of rapid
intensification during the next day or so.

The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt.  A well-defined
mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north
of Dora for the next several days.  This should maintain a
west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period, and the
track model guidance is tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days.
Late in the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow
cyclone is likely to turn westward following the low-level steering
flow.  The official track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 15.0N 101.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.8N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.8N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 17.8N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 18.6N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.6N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 20.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch