000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090236
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
 
NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION
MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY
WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS
SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
LESS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT
THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN