000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062032
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERSISTENT AND
BETTER ORGANIZED IN A BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SHOULD GIVE
THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MID-LATITUDE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SO STRONG BY
DAYS 4-5 THAT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN
RESULTING IN DISSIPATION.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BUT IS A
BIT LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEWLY FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON
A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.
IN RESPONSE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER WEAKENING. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3
BUT GIVES THE ECMWF MODEL MORE WEIGHT ON DAYS 4-5. THIS TREND IS
BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DRASTICALLY
AND BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED MODEL
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 12.9N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 13.2N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 13.5N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 14.1N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 14.9N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 126.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN