000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250832
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS...
WHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72
HOURS.

IVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.  LOW-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG