000
WTPZ44 KNHC 052033
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A
1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST
OF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM
ERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA
WILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART