000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302042
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

ALTHOUGH SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS CONDUCIVE TO
INTENSIFICATION...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  A RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS OF MARGINAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35
KT.  SINCE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THANKS TO THE TIMELY
ASCAT OVERPASS...A GOOD CENTER FIX WAS OBTAINED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NEAR 330/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
EVENTUALLY WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 16.2N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH