000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB RESPECTIVELY AT 0000 UTC...AND 40 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ILEANA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY ANY RECENT CYCLONE ACTIVITY. THUS STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST... AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE... CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...BUT I WANTED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 290/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING ILEANA TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES INITIALLY ON HOW ILEANA INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CYCLONE BREAKING FREE FROM THE ITCZ AND HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS LESS REALISTIC...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. A LEFTWARD BEND SHOULD OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS TIME AS ILEANA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THE LONGER RANGE...AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 15.5N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 16.0N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 16.6N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.1N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE