000
WTPZ44 KNHC 061441
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008

A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT MARIE WAS A
MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THEN.  THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY NOW AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND MARIE WILL
PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/2.  MARIE IS
STILL RESPONDING...SLIGHTLY...TO THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW.  THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MARIE OR ITS REMNANT TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN BEING DRAGGED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE FLOW
TO THE WEST OF NORBERT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 18.7N 123.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 124.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 17.4N 125.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.6N 126.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH