000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0300Z SUGGESTED THAT MARIE WAS STILL A TROPICAL
STORM AT THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES TYPICALLY
MAKE THIS DEPRESSION-STORM CALL DIFFICULT.  SINCE THAT TIME DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE SEPARATING.  ALTHOUGH MARIE HAS PROBABLY
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...WE'LL HOLD IT AS A STORM UNTIL WE ARE A
LITTLE MORE CERTAIN.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY WITHIN A DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES PLACED THE CENTER OF MARIE A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO CONFIRM THIS ESTIMATE...HOWEVER.  ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TAKES MARIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE TURNING
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE EAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  IF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE INDEED SEPARATING...
THEN MARIE MIGHT WELL MAKE LESS WESTWARD PROGRESS THAN THE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 18.5N 123.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.3N 123.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.3N 125.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.6N 125.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN