000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008 MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 40 KT. ALTHOUGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT BE DECREASING ANY FURTHER...MARIE IS EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT... AND THEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY IS FORECAST...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING TREND WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL SOMEWHAT SLOWER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT MARIE BRIEFLY DRIFTED EASTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT MAY HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY FOR THIS ADVISORY. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MARIE...AND IF THE SYSTEM IS DEEP ENOUGH IT WOULD RESPOND BY TURNING WESTWARD. AS MARIE DECAYS...HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN PERHAPS BACK TO THE EAST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT. THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG VORTEX ON A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK... BUT INTERESTINGLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT...AND NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 18.9N 122.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 19.0N 122.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 123.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 124.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 124.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN