000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042037 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008 MARIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS. A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER RATHER COOL SSTS INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MARIE WILL BECOME UNGLUED FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW...WHICH WOULD BE THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 000/2. BY LATE TOMORROW THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...THE GFDL/ECMWF/UKMET SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE LARGE-SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...PERHAPS PARTIALLY DUE TO TD 15-E. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/ NOGAPS...SHOW LESS INTERACTION AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH...AND I DON'T SEE A GOOD REASON TO GO AGAINST THAT GUIDANCE AS THIS STORM HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 18.5N 122.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 18.7N 122.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 18.9N 123.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 125.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 18.5N 127.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE