000
WTPZ44 KNHC 041433
TCDEP4
HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

MARIE LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LESS CONCENTRATED CLOUD MASS NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH WEAKER DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT IN LINE WITH
TAFB/SAB ESTIMATES...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS AFTER
LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES. MARIE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STABLE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALREADY WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 000/2....BUT IT IS HARD TO
DETERMINE NOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED.  ONLY A SLOW
MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LONG AS MARIE REMAINS
IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF MARIE
ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.   LATER ON...THE
CYCLONE MAY ACQUIRE A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL
NOT HAVE ENOUGH VERTICAL DEPTH TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...LIKE THE HWRF/NOGAPS/GFDN SOLUTIONS.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS THE
ONLY MODEL YESTERDAY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST THE RECENT SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION. 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 18.4N 122.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.9N 122.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.1N 123.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 125.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE